Bull run may be short lived
Market watch top headlines
SYDNEY, Jan 30 AAP
January 30 2013, 6:18PM
The Australian share market has recorded 10 consecutive days of gains in its strongest run since 2009 but analysts warn the bullish tendency may soon be tempered by the less rosy realities of reporting season.
The strongest performance by Australian equities since the global financial crisis has been hailed by some market commentators as a return to a bull market, as investors exit safe but low-yielding fixed interest investments and rush cash back into equities in pursuit of returns.
Commsec reported shares are now trading at their highest level since April 2011 and the All Ordinaries Index, which gained 8.3 points or 0.2 per cent to 4919.1 on Wednesday, had achieved its strongest winning streak since July 2009.
The S&P/ASX200 rose 7.7 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 4,896.7 points.
BBY institutional dealer Anson Rosewall cautioned, however, that the market was set for a pullback ahead of the looming profit reporting season.
"A lot of cash that had been sitting on the sidelines has fed back into the market in quite a drastic manner," Mr Rosewall said.
The positive sentiment towards equities is playing out overseas as well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a five-year high and yields on US government bond yields at 12-month highs.
"What we are seeing right now is conditions becoming in some respects over-bought," Mr Rosewall said.
Mr Rosewall said investors who had kept cash on the sidelines were now playing catch-up.
"People have been chasing the market for fear of missing out on further gains," he said.
"It's been a panic back into the market."
Australian stocks such as Linc Energy have been particularly subject to volatile buying in the bullish atmosphere.
Linc stocks leapt 23 per cent on Thursday following an announcement around potential shale oil reserves, which was mistakenly reported as valuing the assets at $US20 trillion ($A19.21 trillion).
The stocks fell back 10 per cent the following day after the company clarified it had not provided that valuation.
However, Mr Rosewall said he expects equities will continue to trend higher, even with an earnings season adjustment, due to improving business conditions in China and further signs of economic stability in Europe.
While US markets have regained their pre-GFC levels, Australian shares remain below the near-6000 level seen in May 2008 and well below the record levels above 6750 recorded in October 2007 .
Mr Rosewall said the high Australian dollar was disguising some of the strength in local stocks.
"If you measure the ASX200 in US dollar terms it's not too far off its pre-GFC highs," he said.
By Peter Trute, AAP Senior Finance Writer